Dos centavos -
Would your sniper of an archer have used a bodkin point? Just who in the heck was he laying in wait for, anyway? Oh, okay ... so if the premise is that Anthony cried "wolf" to lure Matthew into an ambush, then an armour - piercing bodkin point would have been the ammunition of choice by any archer that would dare call him-/herself such.
But if the ambush was intended to catch Matthew, why did the archer shoot a lone rider? With the cry of "Reivers!" as the bait to lure Matthew out, surely the archer would have known that Matthew wouldn't be responding alone, but surrounded by a small army. (Unless he really IS that much of a badass, in which case the shooter needs a bigger arrow, lol.) So again, why did the archer shoot at a lone rider who could not logically be Matthew?
In the late 16th Century, firearms were becoming more and more common, rendering heavy plate pretty much obsolete. The art of the English longbow was quickly falling by the wayside as well, typically being relegated to the ranks of the poor farmers, hunters, woodsmen, etc. who couldn't afford something better. If I were the one effecting the nefarious deed (I respect snipers by the way, contrary to many who consider such as 'cowards' ... it takes a special psyche to literally look a target in the eye then pull the trigger) my weapon of choice would be a crossbow - quiet, much less skilled than a longbow, and capable of defeating any armour of the day. The one abiding danger would be the possibility of the bolt passing completely through the target, and while almost certainly fatal, the one so shot might linger long enough to have his/her minions exact revenge ... or change a will.
If the shooter were a mercenary, a crossbow would have almost certainly been used. If a sneaky, professional assassin then possibly a longbow would be in play. If a longbow, then two types of arrows are in play, either a bodkin point or a more common broadhead. The former would suggest the shooter were military, or at least expecting to use force against a military style target. The latter would lend itself more easily to "I swear it was an accident, Officer! I thought she was a deer!" But again, distinctions can be made in the broadheads as well - an arrow intended to hunt four-legged game will have the tip mounted parallel to the nocking point; a man-killing arrowhead will be perpendicular. It's all about the ribcage of the intended targets - a four-legged animal's ribs will be vertical while a human's is horizontal, hence the arrows are designed to 'slip' through the ribs with a lesser chance of getting stuck in a bone. Plus, a broadhead will cause a much more horrific injury, after all it's designed to cut and 'bleed out' the target as quickly as possible. Sure, a longbowman could further muddy the evidence by using a normal hunting broadhead and just holding the bow parallel to the ground ... a crossbowman? Not so easy. S/he's either using a mankiller or not.
So, to cut my early morning ramblings short (WAY too early ... 4:00 a.m.) if I were playing a game of Medieval Clue ... I'd pick the shady gameskeeper employed by Anthony.
(Wow, reading this back ... WAY too nitpicky. But a fun exercise! Throw it out! LOL)
