njc wrote:As far as studies in the fall: the only ones that matter are those that lead individuals to decide that Trump's policies--GOP policies similar to Reagan's--are providing better lives.
In Trump country, patriotic American voters aren't waiting until the fall to decide that they have been duped. Looks like the rats are abandoning ship before they get the good news you think is coming in the fall.
In third bellwether contest, Florida Democrats again carry the day and hope for a blue wave (Emphasis mine)
By MARC CAPUTO 02/13/2018 07:58 PM EST Updated 02/13/2018 08:33 PM EST
Strike three.
For the third Florida bellwether election in a row, the Republican candidate lost to the Democrat, giving activists and elites in both parties a sense that the GOP’s political grip is slipping in the nation’s largest swing state heading into President Donald Trump’s first midterm election.
Aside from her big 7.4 percentage-point win, what made Margaret Good’s victory Tuesday night over Republican James Buchanan so significant was that it took place in Florida’s 72nd House District. It had been held by a Republican in Sarasota County, where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by 12,000, or about 10 percentage points. Buchanan, the son of local Congressman Vern Buchanan, also had an advantage in name ID.
And Trump had carried the district by 4.6 percentage points in a state that he won by just 1.2 points in November.
But now Trump is too toxic even for Sarasota, say Democrats, who made sure to figuratively hang the unpopular president around the neck of Buchanan as well as the Republicans who lost in the two other recent bellwether contests: Florida’s 40th Senate District in Miami-Dade and St. Petersburg’s mayoral race. Both of those elections had Democratic-leaning electorates with significant minority populations, unlike the 72nd in Sarasota.
In all of the races, Democrats made sure to use Vice President Joe Biden as a surrogate.
“This is beyond a trend. The results are in. Republicans have a real problem in this state,” said Tom Eldon, a Democratic pollster who surveyed the race.
“This is the bellwether seat,” Eldon said. “This seat in Sarasota is the Republicans’ backyard. Anytime Democrats win a seat like this it’s great for Democrats. It happened in 1992. It happened in 2006. And it happened in this seat. This is a bellwether for bad Republican years.”
And it’s not just in Florida. Good’s win was the 36th Republican legislative seat in the nation that a Democrat has won since 2016, a feat partly attributable to Trump’s toxicity and to the reinvigorated Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which helped in Good’s race and the Florida Senate contest in Miami-Dade.
Though Democrats have seen successes throughout the nation, including Virginia’s governor’s race and Alabama’s U.S. Senate race, Eldon cautioned against extrapolating too much from those races.
In a state notorious for close election results, Democrats and Republicans alike said there’s only so much this race means heading into the November elections, when Floridians decide whether to keep Sen. Bill Nelson as they vote on open seats for governor, attorney general, agriculture commissioner and chief financial officer.
Republicans hope that the worst of Trump’s bad approval ratings are over and that Floridians will continue to see the state on the right track under Republicans. Gov. Rick Scott and the Florida Cabinet are all Republican and the GOP controls the state Legislature as well. Scott’s approval rating is higher than ever and he’s widely expected to challenge Nelson.
For all of the contested Democratic victories, though, Republicans point out that there has been no overwhelming “blue wave.” Republicans came out to vote. But there was a catch. Many voted for Good in the district, which has a reputation as a bastion for environmentally conscious establishment Republicans with Midwest sensibilities.
“This was less a blue wave than a red revolt,” said Anthony Pedicini, a top Republican consultant for Buchanan. “Republicans turned out on Election Day, and looks like there was little benefit to our campaign.”
One Republican, who didn’t want to speak publicly against his party’s candidate, said earlier Tuesday that Democrats had another advantage in the Sarasota House seat: “Buchanan was a terrible candidate. And candidates matter.”
Republicans were also bitter that two of their candidates for governor, Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam and Rep. Ron DeSantis, did little to help Buchanan. Meanwhile, the leading Democratic candidates for governor put aside their differences and pitched in for Good.
The only major national figure to help Buchanan: Trump’s former campaign manager, lobbyist Corey Lewandowski, who was kicked out of Trump’s inner circle before he even seized the GOP nomination for president in 2016.
Republicans fretted about the size of Good’s win in Sarasota. It was far larger than state Sen. Annette Taddeo’s win in Miami-Dade and St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman’s victory. Republicans believed that Good was more of an outlier and noted that they won two other recent special elections for state House seats in the Orlando and Tampa areas, though Democrats didn’t contest them seriously.
And because Republicans dominate the levers of power in Florida, they have greater financial resources that can be brought to bear in statewide races and in the multiple contested legislative seats in November. Democrats acknowledge that they’ve been able to win these recent contested elections because they’re able to concentrate their limited fire on one race at a time.
Midterm elections have cursed Florida Democrats as well. Regardless of who’s in office, they’ve consistently lost them statewide for more than two decades. Nelson has been the lone exception.
But, Eldon said, there’s only so much happy talk Republicans can engage in. Eldon said he remembered how, in 2010 and 2014, Democrats were losing in special elections as a prelude to being crushed during the midterm general elections.
“Republicans were saying in 2010 what we’re saying now in special elections. We’re seeing the same thing,” Eldon said. “If Republicans can’t win in Sarasota, it says a lot about the party’s chances.”
njc wrote:Oh, thanks to increases in the GDP over the past few months, our GDP to national debt ratio has gotten a tick better. (I'll find the reference if you want.)
Still waiting for the reference that paints a rosy picture of the national debt. How does it comport with the picture Trump's budget paints of the national debt?
Opinions
Trump’s reverse merger with the GOP is complete
By David Von Drehle Columnist February 13 at 7:50 PM Email the author
There was a lot of talk in 2016 about Donald Trump’s hostile takeover of the Republican Party, but I wrote at the time that in business terms, the transaction was more like a reverse merger.
Maybe you’re unfamiliar with this particular bit of legal, yet slightly sketchy, legerdemain. A privately owned business wants to sell shares to the public but for whatever reason wishes to avoid the close scrutiny of an initial public offering.
So the business owner finds a near-dead company that is already public, buys it for a song, grafts the private enterprise into the hollow public shell and — voila! — the deed is done. One of my favorite examples involved CoolBrands, which once gave the world such frozen treats as Eskimo Pies and the Chipwich. After the yummy product lines were sold to other companies, only the shell remained on the stock market. A private maker of cleaning products snapped it up, and in a twinkling it was public, selling grill degreasers instead of ice cream.
The George W. Bush presidency left the GOP as hollow as CoolBrands minus the sweets. Botched nation-building projects in Afghanistan and Iraq shook the party’s faith in its Reaganesque freedom agenda. The worst economic crisis since the Great Depression rattled its self-image as the party of fiscal competence. Republicans found an identity during the Obama years as the Party of No, but when something more elaborate was needed for the 2016 campaign, the lack of ideas became painfully clear. Sixteen other candidates tried out for the job of chief sales rep, and none could close the deal.
Instead, Trump snapped up the shell of the Republican Party and made it his public vehicle. This reverse merger has been finalized in recent days with a spending bill and proposed budget that no true conservative could love — or even tolerate — given the massive debt they will incur.
But don’t take my word for it. President Trump’s own budget director, the erstwhile tea party conservative Mick Mulvaney, allowed on “Face the Nation” that these Trump-branded debt bombs don’t square with his mothballed former principles. He was asked, were he still in Congress, would he vote in favor?
“Probably not,” Mulvaney replied.
He could drop the modifier, because there is not a chance in the world that the same Mulvaney who used the issue of President Barack Obama’s deficit spending to become the first Republican elected from South Carolina’s 5th District in more than a century would vote for Trump’s trillion-dollar debt debacle.
That Mulvaney is long gone, though, a casualty of the reverse merger. Gone, too, is the fiscal discipline once espoused by House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), who made a career selling the ice cream of a balanced budget but now peddles Trump’s soft soap. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) had plenty of partners in denouncing reckless spending when Obama was minding the store. Now that Trump owns the party, however, Paul is a lonely voice in the night.
Budget discipline is not the only concept Republicans no longer sell. Trump has replaced the free-trade GOP with a protectionist outfit. He’s pushing isolationism and nativism instead of global engagement. Remember how Republicans used to pitch virtue and personal accountability? They’ve become the party of alleged wife-beaters and hush money to porn stars.
But nothing illustrates the reverse merger with Trump more clearly than the Republican-led House of Representatives cheerfully passing tax-cut and spending bills that together will drive the annual deficit past $1 trillion, without the slightest prospect of a balanced budget in their plans. Deficit spending in a slump can be necessary stimulus. To do it on this staggering scale in a period of steady growth and low unemployment is fiscal malpractice.
Republicans used to run on promises that they would make government more efficient by cutting “waste, fraud and abuse.” Forget that, too. Phase one of the first-ever audit of Pentagon budgets recently found the Defense Department is unable to account for some $800 million in spending — by a single agency! Many more defense agencies remain to be audited. Yet the GOP insisted on adding $165billion over two years in new funding for a department that can’t adequately account for the $700 billion per year it already receives.
Lack of transparency is business as usual for Trump, and bankruptcy a familiar harbor. He’s a promoter, a tout, a shill — not a manager. It’s not at all surprising that he would funny up some budget numbers to create an annual fund of about $200 billion and call it a $1.5trillion infrastructure plan. Trump doesn’t compare himself to P.T. Barnum for nothing.
To those of us who value a two-party system, though, it’s a shame to see the conservative party sell itself for scrap. The ticker symbol GOP is now POT: Party of Trump.
njc wrote:Oh, did you read? =Mother Jones='s David Corn is facing some pretty stiff sexual charges of his own.
Oh, did you read? =Trump's= General Kelly has some splaining to do about covering up for giving access to classified materials to Rob Porter who didn't have security clearance.
Right Turn Opinion
Kelly needs to come clean(Emphasis mine)
By Jennifer Rubin February 13 at 1:50 PM Email the author
The Post reports:
FBI Director Christopher A. Wray on Tuesday contradicted the White House’s account of when the bureau informed officials about the status of a senior aide’s security-clearance investigation.
White House officials said that they were first contacted in the summer by the FBI about senior aide Rob Porter’s clearance. They also said that the investigation was never completed and that they did not know the extent of the allegations against Porter. He stepped down last week after accusations of spousal abuse by his two ex-wives.
But Wray, testifying before the Senate Intelligence Committee, said the FBI submitted a partial report on his clearance in March and that the investigation was completed in July.
In other words, it looks like the cover story the White House has concocted is false.
We, along with most of the media, have observed an unusual degree of incoherence and inconsistency in the White House explanation for Rob Porter’s continued access to confidential material and his eventual termination. Now it appears that for days Chief of Staff John F. Kelly and his subordinates misled the American people, and perhaps the president, in making it appear that Porter still had the potential to be granted a final clearance. This is false, raising the question as to why, knowing that he could not qualify for such a clearance, Porter would be kept on and given continued access (we presume) to top classified material.
If not outright lying, Kelly’s handling of this smacks of sheer incompetence. Was he covering up for his unwise decision to keep around an accused wife abuser? Did Kelly defy the normal security clearance process to protect not only Porter but also Jared Kushner and others who cannot qualify for the necessary clearance? We don’t know, but it is hard to argue that Kelly at this point, particularly if he intentionally misled the country, should be permitted to remain.
In a normal administration, Kelly likely would have been fired by now. In this White House, we don’t know if Trump had approved Porter remaining on and therefore consented to the Kelly cover-up or whether the president was bamboozled along with the rest of the country. If Kelly remains, the former explanation becomes more plausible — and more reprehensible.
At this point, Congress should take the unusual step of requiring Kelly to come testify, whether or not Trump fires him. He needs to answer, behind closed doors if need be:
How did Porter keep his job without the appropriate clearance?
Did they understand the security risk (e.g., blackmail) in allowing Porter to remain?
How many others denied permanent clearance in the White House have closed files but retain access to classified material?
Did Trump approve these security arrangements?
Why was Kushner denied clearance? Was it related to his inexplicable failures to disclose Russia-related financial material and meetings?
Hillary Clinton sure has reason to wonder why her home email server was such a to-do while this White House allows, presumably, a slew of characters with questionable backgrounds access to our nation’s secrets. Isn’t it time for Trump to come clean and then justify why his White House plays fast and loose with our nation’s secrets?
Memphis Trace